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If evidence shows that suicide rates are lower during months/on days without schooling, i.e. when children have more time for smartphone and social media usage, doesn't that rather support Peter's hypothesis? Which pattern would one expect to see if the main cause was smartphones and social media?

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This per se is not evidence of a causal link, it is a correlation that suggests a causal link. I am not dismissing the hp, but at the moment the fact that social media play a role is much more robust. I have the impression that these two factors are important. As I said, such type of school anxiety is on the rise everywhere in the West, with or without common core or high stakes testing or difficult tests to get to prestigious universities.

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That's right, it's just correlation. So, here is another hypothesis: when young people have so much school pressure and don't get their core needs satisfied there, they go somewhere else, where something "takes care of them" (that something, social media, is designed to be addictive, I know). When they are so deprived of feeling their autonomy, relatedness and competence, they loose the ability to use social media as a tool, mastering it, instead of subordinating themselves. This hypothesis links together school pressure, social media dependency and mental health deterioration (in short: school pain => smartphone addiction).

The "opposite" hypothesis would be: because of smartphone addiction, young people have issues keeping up with the school agenda, so they get school pressure, and their mental health deteriorates. Or in short: smartphone addiction => school pressure/pain.

For the second hypothesis, one would still need to find the cause why many young people cannot withstand the addictive part of social media/smartphones.

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Both movements might be plausible. Wrt the phone part, brain development make it hard to resist addictions, to adults but especially to kids. Data on depression and suicides should be granular enough to exploit the staggered adoption of common core to explore the anxiety hp.

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